Saturday, April 2, 2011

2011 MLB Predictions


At the start of each season comes a new set of expectations and aspirations of greatness for each team. Well I’m here to dash those hopes for most of the league. Only eight teams can realize those dreams, so here are my detailed picks for how each division will shake out, as well as the awards such as MVP, Cy Young, etc.

AL East:
Boston: 97-65
New York: 92-70
Tampa Bay: 85-77
Toronto: 77-85
Baltimore: 76-86
Boston just added too much offense this year to be beaten. Between bringing in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and the return of their injured players their offense should be one of the tops in the league. Their staff also has the potential to be among the league’s best as well. The Yankees rotation rivals Boston, but there are just too many holes in the rotation to expect them to overtake the Red Sox. Tampa Bay did what they could, but they just lost too many pieces from last season to expect to make it back to the postseason. Toronto and Baltimore both have some good young pieces, but are in the wrong division.

AL Central:
Chicago: 93-69
Minnesota: 89-73
Detroit: 82-80
Kansas City: 68-94
Cleveland: 67-96
Chicago’s offense is ready to hit a ton of homeruns after bringing in Adam Dunn. Look for them to lead the league in round-trippers. Even a healthy Justin Morneau won’t be enough for the Twins to turn an average offense and average pitching staff into a playoff team. The Tigers have some exciting arms but a poor defense and questionable bullpen will be their undoing. The Indians and Royals will battle to stay out of last place, but the difference is that the Royals have some of the best young talent in the game. The Indians, not so much.

AL West:
Texas: 92-70
Oakland: 84-78
Los Angeles- 80-82
Seattle- 70-92
Sure Texas lost Cliff Lee, but I don’t see any of the other West teams being able to take the division away from them. The only thing that could undo them is a Josh Hamilton implosion (not impossible). Oakland has a great young staff, but with that comes some inconsistency. Couple that with a bad offense and they won’t live up to the lofty expectations many have set for them. The Angels don’t really deserve to make the playoffs after their abysmal offseason. The Mariners have Pineda and Ackley coming, but they still need to do more to win during the Felix Hernandez era.

NL East:
Philadelphia: 96-66
Atlanta: 92-70
Florida: 81-81
New York: 76-86
Washington: 69-93
People made plenty of fuss about the Phillies downfall, but they still have enough offense to get by with that great pitching staff. Atlanta should be able to ride rising stars Jason Heyward and Tommy Hanson to a wild card berth. The Marlins just don’t seem to be producing young talent like they used to and will continue to be stuck in mediocrity. The Mets have tons of holes in both their lineup and their rotation, might as well say goodbye to Jose Reyes now. The Nats will just have to survive until Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper can save them.

NL Central:
Cincinnati: 91-71
Milwaukee: 90-72
St. Louis: 87-75
Chicago: 81-81
Houston: 75-87
Pittsburgh: 63-99
Between the Brewers moves and St. Louis’s injuries, everyone seemed to forget about the reigning division champs. The Reds can look to breakout seasons from Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs to help them repeat. Those said moves by the Brewers would be looking better if Zack Greinke wasn’t hurt already. The Cardinals are going to have their hands full trying to scrounge up enough funny to re-sign Albert Pujols, never mind making any in-season moves to help them this season. Sorry Cubbies but this year isn’t the year either. Houston might want to re-consider trading Brett Myers for prospects since they’re headed down in the standings either way. What’s left to say about the Pirates’ struggles? At least I don’t think they’ll lose 100 again this year.

NL West:
San Francisco: 94-68
Colorado: 90-72
Los Angeles: 82-80
Arizona: 70-92
The Giants still have that great staff that should be even better with a full season from Madison Bumgarner. The Rockies never seem to have enough pitching and the Dodgers are like the Mets (except not nearly that bad). The Diamondbacks improved record is thanks mostly to a full season from breakout candidate Daniel Hudson.

Awards:
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt
AL Comeback Player: Erik Bedard
NL Comeback Player: Pablo Sandoval

Playoffs:
ALDS: New York over Chicago, Boston over Texas
ALCS: Boston over New York, Six games
NLDS: Philadelphia over Cincinnati, Atlanta over San Francisco
NLCS: Philadelphia over Atlanta, Five games
World Series: Philadelphia over Boston, Seven games

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